Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre · updated 2026-10-10
Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane in Le Havre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Le Havre have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Auxerre have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Le Havre are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 24% and Auxerre at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Havre 1.87, Auxerre 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 15.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Le Havre vs Auxerre: season averages side by side
| Le Havre | Per match this season | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.89 |
| 15.4 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 48.4 | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Amir Richardson CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 52 · Reads the game, Chance creator (top 18% of his position)
Auxerre
- Danny Namaso LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 45 · Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator (top 21% of his position)
- Kévin Danois DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 43 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta, 33 · Le Havre · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 56
Ally Samatta, 33, plays as a centre-forward for Le Havre in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in big chances missed and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances missed | 0.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.19 / 90 | 91% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.98 / 90 | 88% |
| Duels won | 6.28 / 90 | 76% |
| Shots on target | 45% | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Rarely wastes a big chance, High shot volume, Dominant in the air.
- What Ally Samatta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ally Samatta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Havre vs Auxerre prediction
Le Havre should have more of the ball; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross; Auxerre like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.87 for Le Havre and 1.34 for Auxerre - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. Le Havre have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Le Havre 2-1 Auxerre
Le Havre vs Auxerre betting tips
- Tip 1: Le Havre win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.21 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Le Havre vs Auxerre: questions and answers
When is Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Le Havre vs Auxerre played?
At Stade Océane, Le Havre, Le Havre's home ground.
Who will win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre are the favourites: Le Havre 49%, draw 24%, Auxerre 27%. Our prediction is Le Havre 2-1 Auxerre.
Who is the player to watch in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Ally Samatta of Le Havre: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 56 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.