LOSC Lille vs Brest Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · updated 2026-10-10
LOSC Lille welcome Brest to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
LOSC Lille have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Brest have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: LOSC Lille 41%, the draw 26%, Brest 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LOSC Lille 1.54, Brest 1.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 19.2 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
LOSC Lille vs Brest: season averages side by side
| LOSC Lille | Per match this season | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | 1.16 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 19.2 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.8 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 51% of his position)
Brest
- R. Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Hugo Magnetti CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko, 24 · Brest · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 71
Bradley Locko, 24, plays as a full-back for Brest in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in duels won and accurate crosses. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 71
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.03 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.80 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.00 / 90 | 82% |
| Interceptions | 1.61 / 90 | 81% |
| Tackles | 3.01 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Crosser, Dribbler.
- What Bradley Locko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bradley Locko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
LOSC Lille vs Brest prediction
LOSC Lille should have more of the ball; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.54 for LOSC Lille and 1.35 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: LOSC Lille 1-1 Brest
LOSC Lille vs Brest betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
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LOSC Lille vs Brest: questions and answers
When is LOSC Lille vs Brest?
LOSC Lille vs Brest is on Saturday 17 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is LOSC Lille vs Brest played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, LOSC Lille's home ground.
Who will win LOSC Lille vs Brest?
It is close: LOSC Lille 41%, draw 26%, Brest 33%. Our prediction is LOSC Lille 1-1 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in LOSC Lille vs Brest?
Bradley Locko of Brest: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in LOSC Lille vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.