Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 6
Ligue 1 · Friday 9 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · played · updated 2026-10-10
Lens welcome Olympique Lyonnais to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 action on Friday 9 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Lens have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Olympique Lyonnais have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Lyonnais are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 24% and Lens at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.35, Olympique Lyonnais 1.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Olympique Lyonnais: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Lyonnais play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Olympique Lyonnais
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Ernest Nuamah RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.60 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction
Olympique Lyonnais should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross; Olympique Lyonnais go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.35 for Lens and 1.82 for Olympique Lyonnais - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 63%. Olympique Lyonnais have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lens 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais
Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais betting tips
- Tip 1: Olympique Lyonnais win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais is on Friday 9 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6.
Where is Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Olympique Lyonnais are the favourites: Lens 28%, draw 24%, Olympique Lyonnais 48%. Our prediction is Lens 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.