Lorient vs Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient · updated 2026-10-10
Lorient welcome Monaco to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Lorient have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Monaco have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lorient 34%, the draw 29%, Monaco 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lorient 1.15, Monaco 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.16 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Lorient vs Monaco: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 3.2 | On target | 4.6 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 2.4 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Montassar Talbi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 63 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 79% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 67% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Monaco prediction
Lorient should have more of the ball; Lorient are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.15 for Lorient and 1.22 for Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Monaco
Lorient vs Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Lorient vs Monaco: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Monaco?
Lorient vs Monaco is on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Lorient vs Monaco played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
It is close: Lorient 34%, draw 29%, Monaco 37%. Our prediction is Lorient 1-1 Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Monaco?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.