Monza vs Cagliari Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Monday 19 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Monza welcome Cagliari to U-Power Stadium in Monza in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Monday 19 October 2026.
Monza have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Cagliari have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Monza 41%, the draw 29%, Cagliari 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Monza -0.25 at 1.99, Cagliari at 1.92. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.16, under 1.74, which gives over 45%.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.95 a match created, 1.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 40.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Monza vs Cagliari: season averages side by side
| Monza | Per match | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.95 |
| 1.28 | xG conceded | 1.73 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 3.0 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 51.0 | Pressure share % | 34.1 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 14.8 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Monza
- Gustavo Varela CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52 · Chance creator, Clinical finisher (top 21% of his position)
- Ricardo Mangas LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 51 · Hard to dribble past, Gets into scoring positions (top 13% of his position)
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi, 23 · Monza · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 58
Lorenzo Lucchesi, 23, plays as a centre-back for Monza in Serie A. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and interceptions. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 63
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 95% | 97% |
| Interceptions | 2.58 / 90 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 1.07 / 90 | 77% |
| Tackles | 1.72 / 90 | 69% |
| Clearances | 5.58 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Reads the game.
- What Lorenzo Lucchesi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lorenzo Lucchesi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monza vs Cagliari prediction
Monza should have more of the ball; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.47 for Monza and 1.24 for Cagliari - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Monza 1-1 Cagliari
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Monza vs Cagliari betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Monza vs Cagliari: questions and answers
When is Monza vs Cagliari?
Monza vs Cagliari is on Monday 19 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Monza vs Cagliari played?
At U-Power Stadium, Monza, Monza's home ground.
Who will win Monza vs Cagliari?
It is close: Monza 41%, draw 29%, Cagliari 30%. Our prediction is Monza 1-1 Cagliari.
Who is the player to watch in Monza vs Cagliari?
Lorenzo Lucchesi of Monza: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Cagliari?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.