Paris vs Rennes Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris · updated 2026-10-10
Paris welcome Rennes to Stade Jean Bouin in Paris in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Paris have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rennes have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 22% and Rennes at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paris 2.03, Rennes 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Paris: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 0.85 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Paris vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| Paris | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.69 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 0.85 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.4 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 51.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Paris
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Ilan Kebbal RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Chance creator, Creator (top 27% of his position)
Rennes
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
- Przemyslaw Frankowski RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko, 26 · Paris · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 69
Lassine Sinayoko, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Paris in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 84% |
| Big chances missed | 0.21 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 53% | 76% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Rarely wastes a big chance.
- What Lassine Sinayoko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lassine Sinayoko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris vs Rennes prediction
Rennes should have more of the ball; Rennes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.03 for Paris and 1.03 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 56%. Paris have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris 2-1 Rennes
Paris vs Rennes betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.06 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Paris vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is Paris vs Rennes?
Paris vs Rennes is on Sunday 18 October 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Paris vs Rennes played?
At Stade Jean Bouin, Paris, Paris's home ground.
Who will win Paris vs Rennes?
Paris are the favourites: Paris 60%, draw 22%, Rennes 18%. Our prediction is Paris 2-1 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in Paris vs Rennes?
Lassine Sinayoko of Paris: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.