Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Schalke 04 welcome FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Schalke 04 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. FSV Mainz 05 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 4.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Schalke 04 33%, the draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Schalke 04 +0.25 at 1.86, FSV Mainz 05 at 2.04. The main goals line is 3: over 2.01, under 1.88, which gives over 48%.
Schalke 04: form and key numbers
In style Schalke 04 are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 2.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 35.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
FSV Mainz 05: form and key numbers
In style FSV Mainz 05 press high, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.31 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: season averages side by side
| Schalke 04 | Per match | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.31 |
| 2.29 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 0.75 | Goals | 2.50 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 2.5 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 24.3 | Pressure share % | 70.9 |
| 24.3 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 7.8 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Nikola Katic CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
FSV Mainz 05
- Fabio Gruber CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
- Nadiem Amiri AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 62 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 75
Phillip Tietz, 29, plays as a centre-forward for FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.25 / 90 | 95% |
| Goals | 1.00 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 7.50 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.64 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher, Duel winner.
- What Phillip Tietz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Phillip Tietz's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
FSV Mainz 05 should have more of the ball, with Schalke 04 likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.49 for Schalke 04 and 1.83 for FSV Mainz 05 - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Schalke 04 1-1 FSV Mainz 05
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: questions and answers
When is Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Who will win Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
It is close: Schalke 04 33%, draw 26%, FSV Mainz 05 41%. Our prediction is Schalke 04 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who is the player to watch in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.