Udinese vs Lecce Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Udinese welcome Lecce to Dacia Arena in Udine in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Udinese have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Lecce have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Udinese are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28% and Lecce at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Udinese -0.5 at 1.89, Lecce at 2.01. The main goals line is 2.5: over 2.01, under 1.88, which gives over 48%.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.30 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 8.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 38.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Udinese vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Udinese | Per match | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 8.4 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 44.5 | Pressure share % | 21.4 |
| 14.0 | Tackles | 23.6 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Udinese
- Hassane Kamara LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 23% of his position)
- Maduka Okoye GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 48 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 21% of his position)
Lecce
- Wladimiro Falcone GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
- Danilo Veiga RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mërgim Vojvoda
Mërgim Vojvoda, 31 · Udinese · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 57
Mërgim Vojvoda, 31, plays as a full-back for Udinese in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 57
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.68 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.17 / 90 | 94% |
| Passes | 49.51 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.63 / 90 | 67% |
| Dribbled past | 0.63 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator.
- What Mërgim Vojvoda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mërgim Vojvoda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Udinese vs Lecce prediction
Udinese should have more of the ball; Udinese go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.94 for Udinese and 1.30 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 63%. Udinese have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Udinese 2-1 Lecce
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Udinese vs Lecce betting tips
- Tip 1: Udinese win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.24 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Udinese vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese vs Lecce is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Udinese vs Lecce played?
At Dacia Arena, Udine, Udinese's home ground.
Who will win Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese are the favourites: Udinese 48%, draw 28%, Lecce 24%. Our prediction is Udinese 2-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Udinese vs Lecce?
Mërgim Vojvoda of Udinese: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.