Venezia vs Napoli Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7
Serie A · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Venezia welcome Napoli to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venezia in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Venezia have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Napoli have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Napoli are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 25% and Venezia at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Venezia +0.75 at 1.96, Napoli at 1.94. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
Venezia: form and key numbers
In style Venezia keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.60 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Napoli: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Venezia vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Venezia | Per match | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 2.15 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 51.0 | Pressure share % | 51.5 |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 3.2 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Venezia
- Gianluca Busio DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
- Kike Pérez CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: John Yeboah
John Yeboah, 26 · Venezia · SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 63
John Yeboah, 26, plays as a second striker for Venezia in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in assists. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 73
- SS · Second striker Natural, 63
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.51 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
| Key passes | 2.36 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Dribbler.
- What John Yeboah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open John Yeboah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Venezia vs Napoli prediction
Venezia should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.41 for Venezia and 1.78 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Venezia 1-2 Napoli
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Venezia vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Venezia vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Venezia vs Napoli?
Venezia vs Napoli is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.
Where is Venezia vs Napoli played?
At Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia, Venezia's home ground.
Who will win Venezia vs Napoli?
Napoli are the favourites: Venezia 21%, draw 25%, Napoli 55%. Our prediction is Venezia 1-2 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Venezia vs Napoli?
John Yeboah of Venezia: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.