Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Werder Bremen welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Wohninvest Weserstadion in Bremen in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Werder Bremen have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. SC Paderborn 07 have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Werder Bremen are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 25% and SC Paderborn 07 at 26%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Werder Bremen -0.5 at 1.85, SC Paderborn 07 at 2.05. The main goals line is 3: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Werder Bremen: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
SC Paderborn 07: form and key numbers
In style SC Paderborn 07 play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.81 a match created, 1.54 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: season averages side by side
| Werder Bremen | Per match | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.81 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 1.54 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 0.75 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 6.5 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 48.2 | Pressure share % | 31.7 |
| 23.0 | Tackles | 16.8 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Werder Bremen
- Amos Pieper CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Disciplined, Ball circulator (top 9% of his position)
- Niclas Füllkrug CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 64 · Accurate shooter, Chance creator (top 14% of his position)
SC Paderborn 07
- Nahuel Noll GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 65 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Jano ter Horst CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Laurin Curda
Laurin Curda, 24 · Paderborn · RMF · Two-way wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 71
Laurin Curda, 24, plays as a wide midfielder for Paderborn in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 71
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.08 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 1.87 / 90 | 89% |
| Tackles | 2.67 / 90 | 89% |
| Interceptions | 1.60 / 90 | 89% |
| Dispossessed | 0.80 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Ball-winner.
- What Laurin Curda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Laurin Curda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction
Werder Bremen should have more of the ball; SC Paderborn 07 are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.69 for Werder Bremen and 1.18 for SC Paderborn 07 - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Werder Bremen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Werder Bremen 2-1 SC Paderborn 07
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 betting tips
- Tip 1: Werder Bremen win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.88 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: questions and answers
When is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 played?
At Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen, Werder Bremen's home ground.
Who will win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Werder Bremen are the favourites: Werder Bremen 49%, draw 25%, SC Paderborn 07 26%. Our prediction is Werder Bremen 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who is the player to watch in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Laurin Curda of Paderborn: a two-way wide midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
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