Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 2
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London · updated 2026-10-10
Arsenal welcome LOSC Lille to Emirates Stadium in London in Champions League Gameweek 2 action on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Arsenal have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. LOSC Lille have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 26% and LOSC Lille at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.62, LOSC Lille 1.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Arsenal vs LOSC Lille: season averages side by side
| Arsenal | Per match this season | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 47.6 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
- Bukayo Saka RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls (top 2% of his position)
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 51% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard, 27 · Arsenal · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 65
Martin Ødegaard, 27, plays as an attacking midfielder for Arsenal in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Competent, 55
- RW · Winger Competent, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.24 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 91% |
| Big chances created | 0.71 / 90 | 87% |
| Key passes | 2.83 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Creator, Secure passer.
- What Martin Ødegaard is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Martin Ødegaard's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arsenal vs LOSC Lille prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball, with LOSC Lille likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.62 for Arsenal and 1.01 for LOSC Lille - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 52%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-0 LOSC Lille
Arsenal vs LOSC Lille betting tips
- Tip 1: Arsenal win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Arsenal vs LOSC Lille: questions and answers
When is Arsenal vs LOSC Lille?
Arsenal vs LOSC Lille is on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 2.
Where is Arsenal vs LOSC Lille played?
At Emirates Stadium, London, Arsenal's home ground.
Who will win Arsenal vs LOSC Lille?
Arsenal are the favourites: Arsenal 51%, draw 26%, LOSC Lille 23%. Our prediction is Arsenal 1-0 LOSC Lille.
Who is the player to watch in Arsenal vs LOSC Lille?
Martin Ødegaard of Arsenal: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs LOSC Lille?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.