RB Leipzig vs PSV Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 2
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · updated 2026-10-10
RB Leipzig welcome PSV to Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in Champions League Gameweek 2 action on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
RB Leipzig have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. PSV have played 1 match in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, RB Leipzig are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 24% and PSV at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.84, PSV 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 18.8 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
PSV: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.52 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
RB Leipzig vs PSV: season averages side by side
| RB Leipzig | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 1 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.52 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 18.8 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 6.3 | On target | 2.0 |
| 57.8 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Willi Orbán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball circulator, Disciplined (top 7% of his position)
- Maarten Vandevoordt GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Antonio Nusa, 21, plays as a winger for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and big chances created. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.42 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.79 / 90 | 87% |
| Fouls won | 2.37 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 2.63 / 90 | 61% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Big-chance creator, Draws fouls.
- What Antonio Nusa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antonio Nusa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
RB Leipzig vs PSV prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.84 for RB Leipzig and 1.05 for PSV - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 55%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 PSV
RB Leipzig vs PSV betting tips
- Tip 1: RB Leipzig to win 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.88 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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RB Leipzig vs PSV: questions and answers
When is RB Leipzig vs PSV?
RB Leipzig vs PSV is on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 2.
Where is RB Leipzig vs PSV played?
At Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, RB Leipzig's home ground.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs PSV?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: RB Leipzig 55%, draw 24%, PSV 21%. Our prediction is RB Leipzig 2-1 PSV.
Who is the player to watch in RB Leipzig vs PSV?
Antonio Nusa of RB Leipzig: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs PSV?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.