Lens vs Sporting CP Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 2
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-10-10
Lens welcome Sporting CP to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Champions League Gameweek 2 action on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Lens have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Sporting CP have played 1 match in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 100% of them.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lens 40%, the draw 24%, Sporting CP 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.75, Sporting CP 1.67.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 38.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Lens vs Sporting CP: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | – |
| 14.8 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 38.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.60 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Sporting CP prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.75 for Lens and 1.67 for Sporting CP - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 68%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lens 1-1 Sporting CP
Lens vs Sporting CP betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lens vs Sporting CP: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Sporting CP?
Lens vs Sporting CP is on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 2.
Where is Lens vs Sporting CP played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Sporting CP?
It is close: Lens 40%, draw 24%, Sporting CP 36%. Our prediction is Lens 1-1 Sporting CP.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Sporting CP?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Sporting CP?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.