Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 2
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · updated 2026-10-10
Atlético de Madrid welcome Manchester United to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid in Champions League Gameweek 2 action on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Atlético de Madrid have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Manchester United have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 23% and Manchester United at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético de Madrid 1.92, Manchester United 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 22.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Atlético de Madrid | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.6 |
| 57.1 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.2 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 73 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70
Marcus Rashford, 28, plays as a winger for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and dispossessed. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.31 / 90 | 96% |
| Dispossessed | 0.25 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 86% |
| Fouls won | 2.03 / 90 | 80% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.03 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
- What Marcus Rashford is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Rashford's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball; Atlético de Madrid like to take players on; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.92 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.25 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 61%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlético de Madrid 2-1 Manchester United
Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlético de Madrid win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United is on Tuesday 13 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 2.
Where is Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United played?
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Atlético de Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: Atlético de Madrid 52%, draw 23%, Manchester United 24%. Our prediction is Atlético de Madrid 2-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Marcus Rashford of Manchester United: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.