AS Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
AS Monaco welcome Toulouse to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
AS Monaco have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Toulouse have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Monaco are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 25% and Toulouse at 22%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Monaco -0.75 at 2.00, Toulouse at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
AS Monaco: form and key numbers
In style AS Monaco are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 1.86 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
AS Monaco vs Toulouse: season averages side by side
| AS Monaco | Per match | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.86 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 41.0 | Pressure share % | 55.1 |
| 22.8 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 16.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
AS Monaco vs Toulouse: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- AS Monaco have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: AS Monaco 6, Toulouse 3 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Toulouse 2-2 AS Monaco (April 25th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings AS Monaco won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse | 2 – 2 | AS Monaco |
| 25 Oct 2025 | AS Monaco | 1 – 0 | Toulouse |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Toulouse | 1 – 1 | AS Monaco |
| 7 Dec 2024 | AS Monaco | 2 – 0 | Toulouse |
Players to watch
AS Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 25% of his position)
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Blocks shots (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 79% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 67% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AS Monaco vs Toulouse prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball, with AS Monaco likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.79 for AS Monaco and 1.20 for Toulouse - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. AS Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AS Monaco 2-1 Toulouse
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AS Monaco vs Toulouse betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Monaco win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open AS Monaco vs Toulouse in the Match Centre Follow it live
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AS Monaco vs Toulouse: questions and answers
When is AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
AS Monaco vs Toulouse is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is AS Monaco vs Toulouse played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, AS Monaco's home ground.
Who will win AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
AS Monaco are the favourites: AS Monaco 53%, draw 25%, Toulouse 22%. Our prediction is AS Monaco 2-1 Toulouse.
Who is the player to watch in AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.