Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Paris Saint Germain welcome Le Mans to Parc des Princes in Paris in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Paris Saint Germain have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Le Mans have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at 82%, with the draw at 11% and Le Mans at 7%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Paris Saint Germain -2.75 at 2.06, Le Mans at 1.84. The main goals line is 4: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.13 a match created, 1.02 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.7).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 66.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 |
| 1.02 | xG conceded | 1.76 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.80 |
| 21.2 | Shots | 10.4 |
| 7.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 76.7 | Pressure share % | 34.2 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 6.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
- João Neves CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Gets into scoring positions, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Le Mans
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
- Louis Mafouta CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 71
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in fouls won and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 71
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 71
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 2.98 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.17 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.98 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.98 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.32 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls, High shot volume, Chance creator.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball, with Le Mans likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.09 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.33 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 65%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Le Mans
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris Saint Germain to win 82% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans played?
At Parc des Princes, Paris, Paris Saint Germain's home ground.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Paris Saint Germain 82%, draw 11%, Le Mans 7%. Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.