Lille vs Le Havre Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 6
Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lille welcome Le Havre to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Lille have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Le Havre have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lille are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 21% and Le Havre at 14%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lille -1.25 at 1.98, Le Havre at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.96, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 15.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Lille vs Le Havre: season averages side by side
| Lille | Per match | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | 1.75 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 15.4 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 45.9 | Pressure share % | 55.5 |
| 13.8 | Tackles | 18.4 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 14.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Lille vs Le Havre: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lille 6, Le Havre 3 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lille 1-1 Le Havre (May 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lille won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Lille | 1 – 1 | Le Havre |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre | 0 – 1 | Lille |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Lille | 1 – 2 | Le Havre |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre | 0 – 3 | Lille |
Players to watch
Lille
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 51% of his position)
- Tiago Santos WB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 48 · Duel winner, Gets into scoring positions (top 19% of his position)
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Ally Samatta CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 56 · Rarely wastes a big chance, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexsandro
Alexsandro, 27 · LOSC Lille · CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 58
Alexsandro, 27, plays as a centre-back for LOSC Lille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and clearances. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 58
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Clearances | 7.40 / 90 | 84% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 83% |
| Passes | 69.20 / 90 | 76% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.40 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Box defender, Secure passer.
- What Alexsandro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexsandro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lille vs Le Havre prediction
Le Havre should have more of the ball; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.66 for Lille and 1.12 for Le Havre - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 55%. Lille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lille 2-1 Le Havre
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lille vs Le Havre betting tips
- Tip 1: Lille to win 65% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.79 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Lyon Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
- Nice vs Strasbourg Sunday 11 October 2026
Lille vs Le Havre: questions and answers
When is Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille vs Le Havre is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 6.
Where is Lille vs Le Havre played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille's home ground.
Who will win Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille are the favourites: Lille 65%, draw 21%, Le Havre 14%. Our prediction is Lille 2-1 Le Havre.
Who is the player to watch in Lille vs Le Havre?
Alexsandro of LOSC Lille: a ball-playing centre-back with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Le Havre?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.