Lens vs Lyon Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lens welcome Lyon to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Lens have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lyon have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lens are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Lyon at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lens -0.25 at 1.95, Lyon at 1.95. The main goals line is 3: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Lyon: form and key numbers
In style Lyon play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Lens vs Lyon: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.2 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 59.1 | Pressure share % | 53.5 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 16.6 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Lens vs Lyon: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lens have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lens 6, Lyon 2 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lyon 0-4 Lens (May 17th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lens won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Lyon | 0 – 4 | Lens |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Lens | 0 – 1 | Lyon |
| 4 May 2025 | Lyon | 1 – 2 | Lens |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Lens | 0 – 0 | Lyon |
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 3% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 56 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
Lyon
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Ernest Nuamah RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.60 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.80 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Lyon prediction
Lyon should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross; Lyon go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.35 for Lens and 1.82 for Lyon - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 63%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lens 2-1 Lyon
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lens vs Lyon betting tips
- Tip 1: Lens win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lille vs Le Havre Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
- Nice vs Strasbourg Sunday 11 October 2026
Lens vs Lyon: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Lyon?
Lens vs Lyon is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lens vs Lyon played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Lyon?
Lens are the favourites: Lens 43%, draw 26%, Lyon 31%. Our prediction is Lens 2-1 Lyon.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Lyon?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Lyon?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.