Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Friday 9 October 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · played · updated 2026-10-10
Borussia Dortmund welcome Werder Bremen to Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Friday 9 October 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC.
Borussia Dortmund have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Werder Bremen have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 22% and Werder Bremen at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.08, Werder Bremen 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Werder Bremen: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: season averages side by side
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match this season | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.3 | On target | 6.5 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 75% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.01 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Serhou Guirassy CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 61 · Chance creator, Accurate shooter (top 14% of his position)
Werder Bremen
- Amos Pieper CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Disciplined, Ball circulator (top 9% of his position)
- Olivier Deman LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Ball-winner, Ball circulator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug, 33 · Werder Bremen · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 64
Niclas Füllkrug, 33, plays as a centre-forward for Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and key passes. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 64% | 86% |
| Key passes | 1.76 / 90 | 84% |
| Goals | 0.88 / 90 | 82% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.53 / 90 | 81% |
| Duels won | 6.18 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Chance creator, Clinical finisher.
- What Niclas Füllkrug is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Niclas Füllkrug's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction
Borussia Dortmund should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.08 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.12 for Werder Bremen - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 59%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund to win 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: questions and answers
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is on Friday 9 October 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen played?
At Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund's home ground.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Borussia Dortmund 59%, draw 22%, Werder Bremen 19%. Our prediction is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who is the player to watch in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Niclas Füllkrug of Werder Bremen: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.