Como vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como · updated 2026-10-10
Como welcome Manchester United to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Como have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate. Manchester United have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Como are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and Manchester United at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Como 1.77, Manchester United 1.53.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Como: form and key numbers
In style Como keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 23.4 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 61.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.07 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 22.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Como vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Como | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.68 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 23.4 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 7.2 | On target | 5.6 |
| 61.6 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 7.2 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Como
- Lucas Da Cunha CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 77 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Luis Milla CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Marcus Rashford LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · Chance creator, Press-resistant (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Assane Diao
Assane Diao, 21 · Como · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74
Assane Diao, 21, plays as a winger for Como in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 74
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 70
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 89% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.93 / 90 | 88% |
| Dispossessed | 0.53 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances created | 0.53 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Assane Diao is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Assane Diao's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Como vs Manchester United prediction
Como should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.77 for Como and 1.53 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Como have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Como 2-1 Manchester United
Como vs Manchester United betting tips
- Tip 1: Como win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Como vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Como vs Manchester United?
Como vs Manchester United is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Como vs Manchester United played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Como's home ground.
Who will win Como vs Manchester United?
Como are the favourites: Como 43%, draw 24%, Manchester United 33%. Our prediction is Como 2-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Como vs Manchester United?
Assane Diao of Como: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Como vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.