CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia · updated 2026-10-10
CSKA Sofia welcome Monaco to Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
CSKA Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. Monaco have played 5 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Monaco are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 30% and CSKA Sofia at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 0.86, Monaco 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 36% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
CSKA Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.41.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: season averages side by side
| CSKA Sofia | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 0.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.48 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 4.1 | On target | 4.6 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 44.6 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.9 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.41 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner, 20 · Monaco · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61
Paris Brunner, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 56% | 79% |
| Shots | 3.68 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.58 / 90 | 67% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher.
- What Paris Brunner is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Paris Brunner's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 0.86 for CSKA Sofia and 1.28 for Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams scoring at 42%. Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Monaco
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: Monaco win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 2.14 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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CSKA Sofia vs Monaco: questions and answers
When is CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is CSKA Sofia vs Monaco played?
At Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia, CSKA Sofia's home ground.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Monaco are the favourites: CSKA Sofia 24%, draw 30%, Monaco 45%. Our prediction is CSKA Sofia 0-1 Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Paris Brunner of Monaco: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in CSKA Sofia vs Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.