Gent vs AGF Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Planet Group Arena, Gent · updated 2026-10-10
Gent welcome AGF to Planet Group Arena in Gent in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Gent have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. AGF have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Gent are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 29% and AGF at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gent 1.41, AGF 0.81.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (15%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Gent: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.36 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.56.
AGF: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Gent vs AGF: season averages side by side
| Gent | Per match this season | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 0.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.0 | On target | 4.5 |
| 52.5 | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.56 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Gent vs AGF prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.41 for Gent and 0.81 for AGF - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 43%. Gent have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Gent 1-0 AGF
Gent vs AGF betting tips
- Tip 1: Gent win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 2.22 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Gent vs AGF: questions and answers
When is Gent vs AGF?
Gent vs AGF is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Gent vs AGF played?
At Planet Group Arena, Gent, Gent's home ground.
Who will win Gent vs AGF?
Gent are the favourites: Gent 50%, draw 29%, AGF 21%. Our prediction is Gent 1-0 AGF.
How many goals will there be in Gent vs AGF?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.