Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split · updated 2026-10-10
Hajduk Split welcome Ajax to Stadion Poljud in Split in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Hajduk Split have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Ajax have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 3.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 19% and Hajduk Split at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hajduk Split 2.08, Ajax 2.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 84% · both teams to score: 81%.
- Most likely score: 2–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Hajduk Split: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.36 a match created (goals minus xG: +12.6).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Ajax: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 3.39 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 24.2 a match, 10.3 on target.
- Possession: 66.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Hajduk Split vs Ajax: season averages side by side
| Hajduk Split | Per match this season | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 3.5 | Goals scored | 3.7 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 0.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.39 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 24.2 |
| 5.3 | On target | 10.3 |
| 51.8 | Possession % | 66.2 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 9.2 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.7 goals - 2.08 for Hajduk Split and 2.58 for Ajax - with over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams scoring at 81%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax
Hajduk Split vs Ajax betting tips
- Tip 1: Ajax win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 84% by the model, 4.66 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 81% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Hajduk Split vs Ajax: questions and answers
When is Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Hajduk Split vs Ajax is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Hajduk Split vs Ajax played?
At Stadion Poljud, Split, Hajduk Split's home ground.
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Ajax are the favourites: Hajduk Split 31%, draw 19%, Ajax 49%. Our prediction is Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax.
How many goals will there be in Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 84%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.