FC Bayern München vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich · updated 2026-10-10
FC Bayern München welcome Arsenal to Allianz Arena in Munich in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
FC Bayern München have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Arsenal have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 23% and Arsenal at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.91, Arsenal 1.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.51 a match created, 0.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 21.8 a match, 8.8 on target.
- Possession: 70.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.25.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| FC Bayern München | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.5 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 0.69 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 21.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 8.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 70.5 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 9.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 7.25 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
FC Bayern München
- Alphonso Davies LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Dayot Upamecano CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball circulator, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
- Martin Ødegaard AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 89
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 89
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 85
- SS · Second striker Competent, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 5.05 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.08 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.27 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.48 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball; FC Bayern München work the ball wide and cross; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.91 for FC Bayern München and 1.01 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 55%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Bayern München 2-1 Arsenal
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Bayern München to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.92 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 14.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FC Bayern München vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is FC Bayern München vs Arsenal played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, FC Bayern München's home ground.
Who will win FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: FC Bayern München 58%, draw 23%, Arsenal 19%. Our prediction is FC Bayern München 2-1 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Bayern München vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.