Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-10
Inter welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Inter have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Shakhtar Donetsk have played 1 match in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 20% and Shakhtar Donetsk at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter 2.31, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 63.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Shakhtar Donetsk: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.53 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 6.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: season averages side by side
| Inter | Per match this season | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 1 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.53 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | – |
| 23.2 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 7.4 | On target | 2.0 |
| 63.0 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.2 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 6.0 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
Inter
- Manuel Akanji CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Federico Dimarco LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Lautaro Martínez, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6.11 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.23 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals | 1.11 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 82% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Lautaro Martínez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lautaro Martínez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.31 for Inter and 1.15 for Shakhtar Donetsk - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 62%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter to win 63% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: questions and answers
When is Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter's home ground.
Who will win Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Inter are the favourites: Inter 63%, draw 20%, Shakhtar Donetsk 17%. Our prediction is Inter 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who is the player to watch in Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Lautaro Martínez of Inter: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.