Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool · updated 2026-10-10
Liverpool welcome Villarreal to Anfield in Liverpool in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Liverpool have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Villarreal have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Liverpool are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 24% and Villarreal at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Liverpool 1.79, Villarreal 1.45.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Liverpool: form and key numbers
In style Liverpool keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.2).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.28 a match created, 1.34 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 61.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: season averages side by side
| Liverpool | Per match this season | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.28 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.34 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.6 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 61.9 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Jérémy Jacquet FB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Virgil van Dijk CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 75 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Santi Comesaña CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Press-resistant, Reads the game (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 72
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 72
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 68
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.50 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 0.88 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.53 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.33 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball; Liverpool go long and direct; Villarreal like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.79 for Liverpool and 1.45 for Villarreal - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 64%. Liverpool have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal
Liverpool vs Villarreal betting tips
- Tip 1: Liverpool win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.23 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Liverpool vs Villarreal: questions and answers
When is Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool vs Villarreal is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Liverpool vs Villarreal played?
At Anfield, Liverpool, Liverpool's home ground.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool are the favourites: Liverpool 45%, draw 24%, Villarreal 31%. Our prediction is Liverpool 2-1 Villarreal.
Who is the player to watch in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.