Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-10
Napoli welcome Bodø / Glimt to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Napoli have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bodø / Glimt have played 5 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Napoli are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 22% and Bodø / Glimt at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 2.08, Bodø / Glimt 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Napoli: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Bodø / Glimt: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 53.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Bodø / Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.0 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.0 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 53.2 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 50 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Amir Rrahmani
Amir Rrahmani, 32 · Napoli · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68
Amir Rrahmani, 32, plays as a centre-back for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 68
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.00 / 90 | 99% |
| Aerial duels won | 5.00 / 90 | 97% |
| Tackles | 2.20 / 90 | 83% |
| Clearances | 6.80 / 90 | 81% |
| Dribbled past | 0.20 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Ball-winner.
- What Amir Rrahmani is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Amir Rrahmani's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.08 for Napoli and 1.65 for Bodø / Glimt - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 71%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Bodø / Glimt
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.73 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Napoli are the favourites: Napoli 47%, draw 22%, Bodø / Glimt 30%. Our prediction is Napoli 2-1 Bodø / Glimt.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Amir Rrahmani of Napoli: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.