Porto vs PSV Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-10-10
Porto welcome PSV to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Porto have played 1 match in the Champions League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. PSV have played 1 match in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Porto 34%, the draw 29%, PSV 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Porto 1.16, PSV 1.23.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (1 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Porto: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.30 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 5.0 a match, 0.0 on target.
- Possession: 36.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.60.
PSV: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.52 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Porto vs PSV: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matches | 1 |
| 0.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.30 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.52 |
| 5.0 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 0.0 | On target | 2.0 |
| 36.0 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 2.0 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.60 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Porto vs PSV prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.16 for Porto and 1.23 for PSV - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Porto 1-1 PSV
Porto vs PSV betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.38 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 5.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Porto vs PSV: questions and answers
When is Porto vs PSV?
Porto vs PSV is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Porto vs PSV played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs PSV?
It is close: Porto 34%, draw 29%, PSV 37%. Our prediction is Porto 1-1 PSV.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs PSV?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.