Troyes vs Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Monday 12 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Troyes welcome Marseille to Stade de l'Aube in Troyes in Ligue 1 action on Monday 12 October 2026.
Troyes have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Marseille have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Marseille are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Troyes at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.0% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Troyes +0.5 at 1.95, Marseille at 1.95. The main goals line is 3: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.1).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 39.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Troyes vs Marseille: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 47.8 | Pressure share % | 51.9 |
| 19.4 | Tackles | 13.6 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 19% of his position)
- Adrien Monfray CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 4% of his position)
Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 14% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 69
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Troyes vs Marseille prediction
Marseille should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Troyes work the ball wide and cross; Marseille like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.61 for Troyes and 1.64 for Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Troyes 1-2 Marseille
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Troyes vs Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Marseille win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Lille vs Le Havre Saturday 10 October 2026
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- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
Troyes vs Marseille: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Marseille?
Troyes vs Marseille is on Monday 12 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Troyes vs Marseille played?
At Stade de l'Aube, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Marseille?
Marseille are the favourites: Troyes 27%, draw 26%, Marseille 47%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-2 Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Marseille?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.