VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart · updated 2026-10-10
VfB Stuttgart welcome Atlético de Madrid to MHPArena in Stuttgart in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
VfB Stuttgart have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Atlético de Madrid have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 22% and VfB Stuttgart at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 1.41, Atlético de Madrid 2.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 2.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 57.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid: season averages side by side
| VfB Stuttgart | Per match this season | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 2.15 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 5.5 | On target | 6.4 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 57.1 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
VfB Stuttgart
- Jeff Chabot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- Fabian Bredlow GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 73 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Pablo Barrios CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 82
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 82
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 78
- LB · Full-back Competent, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.59 / 90 | 99% |
| Accurate crosses | 3.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 3.62 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 93% |
| Duels won | 5.69 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid prediction
Atlético de Madrid should have more of the ball; VfB Stuttgart are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Atlético de Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.41 for VfB Stuttgart and 2.11 for Atlético de Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 67%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Atlético de Madrid
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlético de Madrid win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.52 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid: questions and answers
When is VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid?
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid played?
At MHPArena, Stuttgart, VfB Stuttgart's home ground.
Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: VfB Stuttgart 25%, draw 22%, Atlético de Madrid 53%. Our prediction is VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Atlético de Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.