AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-10-10
AFC Bournemouth welcome AC Milan to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
AFC Bournemouth have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. AC Milan have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and AFC Bournemouth at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.26, AC Milan 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.2 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Crosser (top 6% of his position)
- António Silva CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
- Samuel Chukwueze RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier, 27 · AFC Bournemouth · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66
Marcus Tavernier, 27, plays as a winger for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 66
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.32 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.30 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.63 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Marcus Tavernier is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Tavernier's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with AFC Bournemouth likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AFC Bournemouth are a threat in the air and from set pieces; AC Milan press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.26 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.55 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-2 AC Milan
AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.81 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, AFC Bournemouth's home ground.
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
AC Milan are the favourites: AFC Bournemouth 30%, draw 26%, AC Milan 43%. Our prediction is AFC Bournemouth 1-2 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Marcus Tavernier of AFC Bournemouth: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.