AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · updated 2026-10-10
AZ Alkmaar welcome Hapoel Be'er Sheva to AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
AZ Alkmaar have played 1 match in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 30% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.29, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (1 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches.
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.51 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: season averages side by side
| AZ Alkmaar | Per match this season | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.0 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.51 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 2.0 | On target | 4.2 |
| 55.0 | Possession % | 50.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.67 | Average rating | 6.58 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.29 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.99 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 46%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Hapoel Be'er Sheva
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva betting tips
- Tip 1: AZ Alkmaar win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: questions and answers
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva played?
At AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar's home ground.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: AZ Alkmaar 43%, draw 30%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 28%. Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.