Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · TC Strahov, Praha · updated 2026-10-10
Sparta Praha welcome Lillestrøm to TC Strahov in Praha in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Sparta Praha have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Lillestrøm have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sparta Praha 34%, the draw 30%, Lillestrøm 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.14, Lillestrøm 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 42% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sparta Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Lillestrøm: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.90 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm: season averages side by side
| Sparta Praha | Per match this season | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.90 |
| 7.5 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 2.0 | On target | 4.3 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 57.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.14 for Sparta Praha and 1.21 for Lillestrøm - with over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 48%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrøm
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.34 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm: questions and answers
When is Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm?
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm played?
At TC Strahov, Praha, Sparta Praha's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm?
It is close: Sparta Praha 34%, draw 30%, Lillestrøm 37%. Our prediction is Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrøm.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 42%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.