Salzburg vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim · updated 2026-10-10
Salzburg welcome AC Milan to Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Salzburg have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. AC Milan have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Salzburg are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 27% and AC Milan at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Salzburg 1.58, AC Milan 1.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 80% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Salzburg vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Salzburg | Per match this season | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 6.2 | On target | 4.2 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 60.6 |
| 80% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 6.4 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.97 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze, 27 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
Samuel Chukwueze, 27, plays as a winger for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in big chances created and dispossessed. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 0.93 / 90 | 95% |
| Dispossessed | 0.23 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.33 / 90 | 81% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.40 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Press-resistant, Creator.
- What Samuel Chukwueze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Samuel Chukwueze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.58 for Salzburg and 1.01 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 51%. Salzburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Salzburg 1-0 AC Milan
Salzburg vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: Salzburg win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.59 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht Thursday 15 October 2026
Salzburg vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Salzburg vs AC Milan is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Salzburg vs AC Milan played?
At Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim, Salzburg's home ground.
Who will win Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Salzburg are the favourites: Salzburg 50%, draw 27%, AC Milan 23%. Our prediction is Salzburg 1-0 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Samuel Chukwueze of AC Milan: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.