Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Enea stadion, Poznań · updated 2026-10-10
Lech Poznań welcome Bayer 04 Leverkusen to Enea stadion in Poznań in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Lech Poznań have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lech Poznań 38%, the draw 24%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lech Poznań 1.72, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lech Poznań: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created (goals minus xG: +10.0).
- Shots: 18.0 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 56.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.53 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| Lech Poznań | Per match this season | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.53 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 18.0 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 7.4 | On target | 6.3 |
| 56.8 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 9.3 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Equi Fernández DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza, 20 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69
Ibrahim Maza, 20, plays as an attacking midfielder for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.25 / 90 | 95% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.25 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 3.25 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.42 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Dribbler, Chance creator.
- What Ibrahim Maza is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ibrahim Maza's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.72 for Lech Poznań and 1.71 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lech Poznań 1-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.43 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen played?
At Enea stadion, Poznań, Lech Poznań's home ground.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
It is close: Lech Poznań 38%, draw 24%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 38%. Our prediction is Lech Poznań 1-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Ibrahim Maza of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.