AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-10-10
AFC Bournemouth welcome Sturm Graz to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
AFC Bournemouth have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: AFC Bournemouth 30%, the draw 28%, Sturm Graz 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.15, Sturm Graz 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 36.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: season averages side by side
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.62 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.6 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.5 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 36.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- Adrien Truffert LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Crosser (top 6% of his position)
- António Silva CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier, 27 · AFC Bournemouth · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66
Marcus Tavernier, 27, plays as a winger for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 66
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 62
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.32 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.30 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.63 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots | 2.74 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Marcus Tavernier is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Tavernier's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.15 for AFC Bournemouth and 1.39 for Sturm Graz - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sturm Graz
AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.54 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: questions and answers
When is AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, AFC Bournemouth's home ground.
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
It is close: AFC Bournemouth 30%, draw 28%, Sturm Graz 42%. Our prediction is AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who is the player to watch in AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Marcus Tavernier of AFC Bournemouth: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.