Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan · updated 2026-10-10
Ararat-Armenia welcome AZ Alkmaar to Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Ararat-Armenia have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 1 match in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Ararat-Armenia 34%, the draw 30%, AZ Alkmaar 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 1.14, AZ Alkmaar 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Ararat-Armenia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| Ararat-Armenia | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 0.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 2.0 | On target | 2.0 |
| 44.0 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 0% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.52 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.14 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.16 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 48%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Ararat-Armenia 1-1 AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan, Ararat-Armenia's home ground.
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
It is close: Ararat-Armenia 34%, draw 30%, AZ Alkmaar 36%. Our prediction is Ararat-Armenia 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
How many goals will there be in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.