Benfica vs Celtic Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-10
Benfica welcome Celtic to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Benfica have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 4.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Celtic have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are clear favourites at 78%, with the draw at 13% and Celtic at 8%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Benfica 3.00, Celtic 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 75% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Benfica: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.0).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Celtic: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Benfica vs Celtic: season averages side by side
| Benfica | Per match this season | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 2 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.86 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 61.3 | Possession % | 58.0 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.7 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.5 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Benfica vs Celtic prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 3.00 for Benfica and 0.95 for Celtic - with over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 59%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Benfica 3-0 Celtic
Benfica vs Celtic betting tips
- Tip 1: Benfica to win 78% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 75% by the model, 3.95 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 1.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Benfica vs Celtic: questions and answers
When is Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica vs Celtic is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Benfica vs Celtic played?
At Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa, Benfica's home ground.
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
Benfica are the favourites: Benfica 78%, draw 13%, Celtic 8%. Our prediction is Benfica 3-0 Celtic.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Celtic?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.