Celje vs Salzburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Z'dežele, Celje · updated 2026-10-10
Celje welcome Salzburg to Stadion Z'dežele in Celje in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Celje have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Salzburg have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Salzburg are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 24% and Celje at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celje 0.94, Salzburg 1.84.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Celje: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.66 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.0).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.50.
Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 80% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Celje vs Salzburg: season averages side by side
| Celje | Per match this season | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.08 |
| 11.0 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.2 |
| 57.3 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 80% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 5.2 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.50 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Celje vs Salzburg prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 0.94 for Celje and 1.84 for Salzburg - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 52%. Salzburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Celje 0-1 Salzburg
Celje vs Salzburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Salzburg to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.77 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Celje vs Salzburg: questions and answers
When is Celje vs Salzburg?
Celje vs Salzburg is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Celje vs Salzburg played?
At Stadion Z'dežele, Celje, Celje's home ground.
Who will win Celje vs Salzburg?
Salzburg are the favourites: Celje 18%, draw 24%, Salzburg 58%. Our prediction is Celje 0-1 Salzburg.
How many goals will there be in Celje vs Salzburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.