Celtic vs Celta de Vigo Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Celtic Park, Glasgow · updated 2026-10-10
Celtic welcome Celta de Vigo to Celtic Park in Glasgow in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Celtic have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Celta de Vigo have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Celtic 34%, the draw 27%, Celta de Vigo 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Celtic 1.30, Celta de Vigo 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Celtic: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 0.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Celta de Vigo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Celtic vs Celta de Vigo: season averages side by side
| Celtic | Per match this season | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 3.7 |
| 58.0 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 0.5 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Celta de Vigo
- Ionuț Radu GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 55 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Marcos Alonso CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Javi Rueda
Javi Rueda, 24 · Celta de Vigo · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 59
Javi Rueda, 24, plays as a full-back for Celta de Vigo in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 59
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.44 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.96 / 90 | 80% |
| Interceptions | 1.44 / 90 | 72% |
| Dribbled past | 0.48 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Javi Rueda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Javi Rueda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Celtic vs Celta de Vigo prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.30 for Celtic and 1.39 for Celta de Vigo - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Celtic 1-1 Celta de Vigo
Celtic vs Celta de Vigo betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Celtic vs Celta de Vigo: questions and answers
When is Celtic vs Celta de Vigo?
Celtic vs Celta de Vigo is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Celtic vs Celta de Vigo played?
At Celtic Park, Glasgow, Celtic's home ground.
Who will win Celtic vs Celta de Vigo?
It is close: Celtic 34%, draw 27%, Celta de Vigo 39%. Our prediction is Celtic 1-1 Celta de Vigo.
Who is the player to watch in Celtic vs Celta de Vigo?
Javi Rueda of Celta de Vigo: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Celtic vs Celta de Vigo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.