Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd · updated 2026-10-10
Crvena Zvezda welcome FC København to Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Crvena Zvezda have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. FC København have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Crvena Zvezda are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 25% and FC København at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Crvena Zvezda 1.68, FC København 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Crvena Zvezda: form and key numbers
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 9.5 on target.
- Possession: 65.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.45.
FC København: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.92 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.5).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 6.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Crvena Zvezda vs FC København: season averages side by side
| Crvena Zvezda | Per match this season | FC København |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| 17.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 9.5 | On target | 6.8 |
| 65.3 | Possession % | 46.5 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.45 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Crvena Zvezda vs FC København prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.68 for Crvena Zvezda and 1.39 for FC København - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Crvena Zvezda have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FC København
Crvena Zvezda vs FC København betting tips
- Tip 1: Crvena Zvezda win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.07 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Crvena Zvezda vs FC København: questions and answers
When is Crvena Zvezda vs FC København?
Crvena Zvezda vs FC København is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Crvena Zvezda vs FC København played?
At Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd, Crvena Zvezda's home ground.
Who will win Crvena Zvezda vs FC København?
Crvena Zvezda are the favourites: Crvena Zvezda 44%, draw 25%, FC København 31%. Our prediction is Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FC København.
How many goals will there be in Crvena Zvezda vs FC København?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.