Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb · updated 2026-10-10
Dinamo Zagreb welcome NEC Nijmegen to Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Dinamo Zagreb have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. NEC Nijmegen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Dinamo Zagreb are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 21% and NEC Nijmegen at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.18, NEC Nijmegen 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Dinamo Zagreb: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: season averages side by side
| Dinamo Zagreb | Per match this season | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.5 | On target | 4.8 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.18 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.19 for NEC Nijmegen - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 62%. Dinamo Zagreb have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 NEC Nijmegen
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen betting tips
- Tip 1: Dinamo Zagreb to win 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: questions and answers
When is Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen played?
At Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb, Dinamo Zagreb's home ground.
Who will win Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb are the favourites: Dinamo Zagreb 59%, draw 21%, NEC Nijmegen 19%. Our prediction is Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
How many goals will there be in Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.