FC Twente vs Thun Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede · updated 2026-10-10
FC Twente welcome Thun to De Grolsch Veste in Enschede in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
FC Twente have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Thun have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Twente are clear favourites at 81%, with the draw at 11% and Thun at 8%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Twente 3.66, Thun 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 86% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 23.5 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 61.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Thun: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
FC Twente vs Thun: season averages side by side
| FC Twente | Per match this season | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.3 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 3.0 |
| 2.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 23.5 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 9.0 | On target | 4.8 |
| 61.0 | Possession % | 43.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 8.3 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 7.09 | Average rating | 6.59 |
FC Twente vs Thun prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.9 goals - 3.66 for FC Twente and 1.22 for Thun - with over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams scoring at 69%. FC Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Twente 3-1 Thun
FC Twente vs Thun betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Twente to win 81% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 86% by the model, 4.87 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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FC Twente vs Thun: questions and answers
When is FC Twente vs Thun?
FC Twente vs Thun is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is FC Twente vs Thun played?
At De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, FC Twente's home ground.
Who will win FC Twente vs Thun?
FC Twente are the favourites: FC Twente 81%, draw 11%, Thun 8%. Our prediction is FC Twente 3-1 Thun.
How many goals will there be in FC Twente vs Thun?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 86%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.