Getafe vs Lugano Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe · updated 2026-10-10
Getafe welcome Lugano to Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in Getafe in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Getafe have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lugano have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lugano are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 26% and Getafe at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Getafe 0.82, Lugano 1.62.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 45%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Getafe: form and key numbers
In style Getafe are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.92 a match created, 1.37 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 40.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Lugano: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.38 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
Getafe vs Lugano: season averages side by side
| Getafe | Per match this season | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.38 |
| 1.37 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.7 | Shots | 17.5 |
| 2.7 | On target | 6.0 |
| 40.3 | Possession % | 57.7 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Players to watch
Getafe
- David Soria GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Iván Azón CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 46 · Rarely wastes a big chance, Accurate shooter (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Zaid Romero
Zaid Romero, 26 · Getafe · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 49
Zaid Romero, 26, plays as a centre-back for Getafe in La Liga. Strongest for his role in interceptions and long balls. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 55
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 49
- LB · Full-back Competent, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.26 / 90 | 95% |
| Long balls | 3.66 / 90 | 81% |
| Duels won | 5.22 / 90 | 75% |
| Fouls committed | 0.70 / 90 | 61% |
| Clearances | 5.40 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Long passer.
- What Zaid Romero is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Zaid Romero's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Getafe vs Lugano prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 0.82 for Getafe and 1.62 for Lugano - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 45%. Lugano have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Getafe 0-1 Lugano
Getafe vs Lugano betting tips
- Tip 1: Lugano to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.43 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Getafe vs Lugano: questions and answers
When is Getafe vs Lugano?
Getafe vs Lugano is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Getafe vs Lugano played?
At Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe, Getafe's home ground.
Who will win Getafe vs Lugano?
Lugano are the favourites: Getafe 18%, draw 26%, Lugano 56%. Our prediction is Getafe 0-1 Lugano.
Who is the player to watch in Getafe vs Lugano?
Zaid Romero of Getafe: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Getafe vs Lugano?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.