Hearts vs Nordsjælland Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh · updated 2026-10-10
Hearts welcome Nordsjælland to Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Hearts have played 2 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Nordsjælland have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nordsjælland are clear favourites at 79%, with the draw at 14% and Hearts at 7%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hearts 0.75, Nordsjælland 2.73.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Hearts: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 65.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 10.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Nordsjælland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.42 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Hearts vs Nordsjælland: season averages side by side
| Hearts | Per match this season | Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.0 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.42 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.7 |
| 65.5 | Possession % | 60.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 17% |
| 10.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Hearts vs Nordsjælland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 0.75 for Hearts and 2.73 for Nordsjælland - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 50%. Nordsjælland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Hearts 0-2 Nordsjælland
Hearts vs Nordsjælland betting tips
- Tip 1: Nordsjælland to win 79% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.48 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 15.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Hearts vs Nordsjælland: questions and answers
When is Hearts vs Nordsjælland?
Hearts vs Nordsjælland is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Hearts vs Nordsjælland played?
At Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh, Hearts's home ground.
Who will win Hearts vs Nordsjælland?
Nordsjælland are the favourites: Hearts 7%, draw 14%, Nordsjælland 79%. Our prediction is Hearts 0-2 Nordsjælland.
How many goals will there be in Hearts vs Nordsjælland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.