Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadion Miejski, Białystok · updated 2026-10-10
Jagiellonia Białystok welcome Ararat-Armenia to Stadion Miejski in Białystok in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Jagiellonia Białystok have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Ararat-Armenia have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Jagiellonia Białystok are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 27% and Ararat-Armenia at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok 1.56, Ararat-Armenia 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Jagiellonia Białystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.43 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.8).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Ararat-Armenia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia: season averages side by side
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Per match this season | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 3 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 0.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.89 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 5.2 | On target | 2.0 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 44.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 2.2 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 6.52 |
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.56 for Jagiellonia Białystok and 0.90 for Ararat-Armenia - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 47%. Jagiellonia Białystok have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok 1-0 Ararat-Armenia
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia betting tips
- Tip 1: Jagiellonia Białystok win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.45 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 5.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia: questions and answers
When is Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia played?
At Stadion Miejski, Białystok, Jagiellonia Białystok's home ground.
Who will win Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Jagiellonia Białystok are the favourites: Jagiellonia Białystok 52%, draw 27%, Ararat-Armenia 21%. Our prediction is Jagiellonia Białystok 1-0 Ararat-Armenia.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.