Juventus vs Rennes Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Juventus Stadium, Torino · updated 2026-10-10
Juventus welcome Rennes to Juventus Stadium in Torino in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Juventus have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rennes have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Juventus are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Rennes at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Juventus 2.08, Rennes 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 0.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Juventus vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| Juventus | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 0.61 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 17.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 5.8 | On target | 5.4 |
| 56.0 | Possession % | 51.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 8.6 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Secure passer (top 10% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 4% of his position)
Rennes
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
- Przemyslaw Frankowski RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Creator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 69
Francisco Conceição, 23, plays as a winger for Juventus in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.98 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 2.97 / 90 | 73% |
| Dispossessed | 0.74 / 90 | 72% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.26 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Francisco Conceição is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Conceição's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Juventus vs Rennes prediction
Juventus should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.08 for Juventus and 1.02 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 57%. Juventus have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Rennes
Juventus vs Rennes betting tips
- Tip 1: Juventus to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Juventus vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is Juventus vs Rennes?
Juventus vs Rennes is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Juventus vs Rennes played?
At Juventus Stadium, Torino, Juventus's home ground.
Who will win Juventus vs Rennes?
Juventus are the favourites: Juventus 61%, draw 22%, Rennes 17%. Our prediction is Juventus 2-1 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in Juventus vs Rennes?
Francisco Conceição of Juventus: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Juventus vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.