Lech Poznań vs Sunderland Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Enea stadion, Poznań · updated 2026-10-10
Lech Poznań welcome Sunderland to Enea stadion in Poznań in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Lech Poznań have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Sunderland have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lech Poznań are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 20% and Sunderland at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lech Poznań 2.34, Sunderland 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lech Poznań: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created (goals minus xG: +10.0).
- Shots: 18.0 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 56.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Sunderland: form and key numbers
In style Sunderland play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.3).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: season averages side by side
| Lech Poznań | Per match this season | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 18.0 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 7.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 56.8 | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Sunderland
- Granit Xhaka DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Long passer, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
- Dan Ballard CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73
Brian Brobbey, 24, plays as a centre-forward for Sunderland in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.27 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances missed | 0.22 / 90 | 78% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.92 / 90 | 76% |
| Goals | 0.67 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Brian Brobbey is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brian Brobbey's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.34 for Lech Poznań and 1.27 for Sunderland - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 65%. Lech Poznań have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lech Poznań 2-1 Sunderland
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland betting tips
- Tip 1: Lech Poznań to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.61 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: questions and answers
When is Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lech Poznań vs Sunderland played?
At Enea stadion, Poznań, Lech Poznań's home ground.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznań are the favourites: Lech Poznań 61%, draw 20%, Sunderland 19%. Our prediction is Lech Poznań 2-1 Sunderland.
Who is the player to watch in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Brian Brobbey of Sunderland: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.