Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller · updated 2026-10-10
Lillestrøm welcome Real Sociedad to Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Lillestrøm have played 3 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lillestrøm are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 27% and Real Sociedad at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lillestrøm 1.59, Real Sociedad 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lillestrøm: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.90 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
In style Real Sociedad play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Lillestrøm | Per match this season | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.1 |
| 57.7 | Possession % | 49.1 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 8.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Carlos Soler CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Jon Aramburu RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Gómez
Sergio Gómez, 26 · Real Sociedad · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61
Sergio Gómez, 26, plays as a full-back for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in passes and key passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 61
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 52.69 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.91 / 90 | 85% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.61 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Chance creator, Secure passer.
- What Sergio Gómez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Gómez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.59 for Lillestrøm and 1.04 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 52%. Lillestrøm have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lillestrøm 1-0 Real Sociedad
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad betting tips
- Tip 1: Lillestrøm win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 15.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
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- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad played?
At Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller, Lillestrøm's home ground.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Lillestrøm are the favourites: Lillestrøm 49%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 24%. Our prediction is Lillestrøm 1-0 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Sergio Gómez of Real Sociedad: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.