Monaco vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-10
Monaco welcome SC Freiburg to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Monaco have played 5 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Monaco at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.24, SC Freiburg 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.23 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Monaco vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Monaco | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.23 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 0.99 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 4.6 | On target | 6.5 |
| 44.6 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 7.07 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
- Lukas Hradecky GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 25% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 15% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.17 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.17 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.17 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 60% | 83% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with Monaco likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monaco like to take players on; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.24 for Monaco and 1.58 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 57%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Monaco 1-2 SC Freiburg
Monaco vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.82 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Monaco vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Monaco vs SC Freiburg is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Monaco vs SC Freiburg played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, Monaco's home ground.
Who will win Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: Monaco 29%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg 45%. Our prediction is Monaco 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.